NY Penn track predictor

NJ Transit posts the track about ten minutes before departure and the crowd stampedes. Does the same train leave from the same track every day? This is the track each train has used most often in the last 30 days, next to what the board says right now — and an honest score of how often that guess has been right.

Prediction = the most common track over the train's runs in the last 30 days, with the share of runs that used it. Solid green: 75%+ of at least 3 runs; amber: 50–75%; dashed: too few runs or no clear favourite. A departed train's track is outlined green when it matched the prediction, red when it didn't. Within 15 minutes of departure, if the usual track is posted for another train or a train left it in the last 10 minutes, the prediction moves to the next most common free track (marked usual N in use).

Tracks taken right now: 9 3841 boarding

How reliable is this?

We replay the last 30 days in order: before each departure, predict the track from that train's earlier runs (at least two, and no tie), then check. That gives 22 of 135 right (16%). Track assignment is operational: a late inbound train, a platform out of service or a schedule change re-shuffles it, and a train with only a handful of runs on record tells you little. Data collection began 2026-08-31, so the numbers get better every week.